{"_note": "Fed decision page data. Update 'decision' after each meeting (the finance task does this). odds asof = date of the figures.", "meeting": {"dates": "October 27–28, 2026", "decisionIso": "2026-10-28T14:00:00-04:00", "presser": "2:30 p.m. ET", "chair": "Kevin Warsh", "current": "3.75–4.00%", "lastMove": "Raised +0.25 on September 16, 2026, the first hike since 2023"}, "odds": {"asof": "2026-10-27", "hold": "about 93%", "hike25": "about 7%", "dec_hike": "about 75–79%", "src": [["Kalshi / Polymarket via DefiRate (Oct 27, 8:40 a.m. ET): hold 93%, hike 7%, December hike 75% (meeting-path table 79%)", "https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/"], ["CME FedWatch via Reuters (weekend of Oct 24)", "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html"], ["Reuters poll: 94 of 100 economists expect a hold", "https://www.reuters.com/"], ["Yardeni week-ahead: hike odds 9% this week, 84% in December", "https://yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-october-26-30"]]}, "context": ["Inflation is 3.72% year over year (CPI, September), well above the 2% target, which is why December is priced for a hike.", "The Fed raised a quarter point in September; the October meeting has no new projections (the next Summary of Economic Projections is December 8–9).", "Midterm elections are six days after the meeting. Yardeni's note argues the committee should hike now but will not because of the timing.", "The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.00% on Oct 23 and again on Oct 26; mortgage rates are 7.32%."], "watch": ["The statement's description of inflation: 'elevated' with a new reference to 'further firming' would confirm December.", "Dissents: a hawkish dissent in favor of hiking would push December odds toward certainty.", "The press conference at 2:30: any hint that the committee discussed a half-point move.", "Balance sheet language: a faster runoff would push long rates up even on a hold."], "decision": null}