What the yield curve is telling you

The yield curve is one line of numbers: what the government pays to borrow for 2 years versus 10. The gap between them has preceded most U.S. recessions. Here is where it is today and how to read it.

Today's curve

2-year Treasury: 4.81% (DGS2, 2026-10-21). 10-year Treasury: 5.13% (DGS10, 2026-10-21). The gap, 10-year minus 2-year: +0.31 points (T10Y2Y, 2026-10-22).

How to read it

A normal curve slopes up: lenders want more to lock money away for 10 years than for 2. When the 2-year pays more than the 10-year the curve is inverted. That has happened before every U.S. recession since the 1970s, usually 6 to 24 months ahead, because it means the market expects the Fed to be cutting rates in the future, which it does when the economy weakens.

Over the last 13 months the spread has stayed positive. The monthly line is on the history charts.

What it means for borrowing

The 2-year tracks the Fed's next two years; the 10-year sets mortgages. When the curve is flat, a 15-year mortgage is barely cheaper than a 30-year (today 6.68% versus 7.32%). When it steepens, long borrowing gets expensive first: that is what a 10-year above 5% means for anyone buying a house.

What it does not tell you

Timing. An inversion says a slowdown is more likely than usual, not when. The jobs number (unemployment 4.2% as of 2026-09-01) and inflation (3.7% year over year) are the other two lines the desk watches. All three are charted together on Turner Finance.

Every figure on this page is the latest reading of the named Federal Reserve (FRED) series on the date shown, pulled 2026-10-23. The page is regenerated when the desk refreshes.