Should I lock my rate?
This week: 30-year fixed 7.32%, 15-year 6.68%, 10-year Treasury 5.00% (2026-10-23). The spread between the mortgage and the 10-year is 2.32 points; the long-run normal is about 1.7, so part of today's rate is the spread, not the Treasury.
The three-question test
- Can you afford the payment at today's rate? If yes, you are buying certainty, and certainty is what a lock is for.
- Is a known market event before your closing? A Fed decision, a CPI print or a jobs report can move the 10-year 0.15–0.30 in an afternoon. Lock before it, or pay for a float-down.
- Is the spread wide? When the mortgage-to-Treasury spread is above about 2.0 points, the pressure is for rates to fall even if the 10-year is flat, which argues for a float-down rather than a plain lock.
Lock periods and what they cost
| Lock | Typical cost | Use it when |
|---|---|---|
| 15 days | Often a credit of 0.125 points | Refinance with appraisal and title done |
| 30 days | Par (the quoted rate) | Standard refinance |
| 45 days | +0.125 points or +0.02–0.05% rate | Standard purchase |
| 60 days | +0.25 points or +0.05–0.10% rate | New construction near completion, slow closings |
| Extension | 0.125–0.25 points per 7–15 days | Always cheaper than relocking at a higher rate |
Costs vary by lender; a point is 1% of the loan.
What a 0.25 move is worth
On a $400,000 loan, 30 years: at 7.07% the payment is $2,680; at 7.32% it is $2,748; at 7.57% it is $2,816. A quarter point is about $68 a month, or $4,100 over the first five years.
Rule of thumb: if you would be upset to see the rate rise 0.25 before closing and you can afford today's payment, lock today. If the spread is wide and a Fed cut is priced in, ask for a float-down and lock the floor. Numbers on this page refresh with the weekly Freddie Mac survey (Thursdays) and the daily Treasury close.