Fed decision: October 27–28, 2026
Before the meeting odds as of 2026-10-24
91–94%hold at 3.75–4.00%
6–9%hike a quarter point
about 84%hike in December
—until the statement
Statement at 2:00 p.m. ET on 28, 2026; Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET. Last move: Raised +0.25 on September 16, 2026, the first hike since 2023. This page is rewritten the same afternoon with the decision and the statement in plain English.
Odds: CME FedWatch via Reuters (weekend of Oct 24) · Kalshi / Polymarket via DefiRate (Oct 24) · Reuters poll: 94 of 100 economists expect a hold · Yardeni week-ahead: hike odds 9% this week, 84% in December.
The setup
- Inflation is 3.72% year over year (CPI, September), well above the 2% target, which is why December is priced for a hike.
- The Fed raised a quarter point in September; the October meeting has no new projections (the next Summary of Economic Projections is December 8–9).
- Midterm elections are six days after the meeting. Yardeni's note argues the committee should hike now but will not because of the timing.
- The 10-year Treasury slipped back under 5% on Oct 22 after topping it earlier in the month; mortgage rates are 7.32%.
What to watch at 2:00 and 2:30
- The statement's description of inflation: 'elevated' with a new reference to 'further firming' would confirm December.
- Dissents: a hawkish dissent in favor of hiking would push December odds toward certainty.
- The press conference at 2:30: any hint that the committee discussed a half-point move.
- Balance sheet language: a faster runoff would push long rates up even on a hold.
What a quarter point does to you
| Loan | Rate now | Payment now | After +0.25 | Difference | How fast it moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average new-car loan, $44,658 over 72 months | 7.54% | $773 | $778 | +$5/mo | Months; banks reprice new loans, existing fixed loans never change |
| $400,000 home, 30-year fixed (20% down) | 7.32% | $2,198 | $2,253 | +$55/mo | Mortgages follow the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed directly; the press conference moves it more than the vote |
| $6,500 credit-card balance at the bank average | 21.19% | $115 | $116 | +$1/mo | Same statement cycle: prime moves the day after the Fed |
Rates: FRED (auto loan TERMCBAUTO48NS/RIFLPBCIANM60NM 2026-08, credit card TERMCBCCALLNS 2026-08, mortgage MORTGAGE30US 2026-10-22). Car price: Edmunds average new-car amount financed. Credit-card row is interest only.