GDP report: Q3 2026
Before the release October 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET
3.4%Atlanta Fed GDPNow (2026-10-27)
about 3.0% (Reuters/Dow Jones surveys)economists' consensus
2.2%Q2 2026 (Third estimate, Sept 2026)
—until the number
This page is rewritten the morning of the release with the headline, the breakdown and what it means. Nowcast sources: Atlanta Fed GDPNow · BEA release schedule.
Last quarter: Q2 2026, 2.2%
Revised up from 1.5% in the second estimate on stronger investment, consumer spending and government spending. Q1 2026 was 2.5%. PCE prices 5.0%, core PCE 3.3%, corporate profits +$384 billion.
Source: BEA, GDP third estimate Q2 2026.
What to watch
- Consumer spending: it carried the first half; a slowdown here would show the September jobs weakness spreading.
- The PCE price index inside the report: Q2 ran 5.0% headline and 3.3% core, which is why the Fed hiked in September.
- Business investment and the AI data-center build-out, the other big contributor in 2026.
- Imports: a surge subtracts from GDP even when demand is fine; tariff front-running made Q1 2025 negative.
Real GDP growth by quarter annualized, since 2018
Source: BEA via FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA. The 2020 swing (−28% then +35%) is clipped to the chart scale by the bar height; hover for values.
How to read it in 60 seconds
- Headline: real GDP, annualized. 2% is the long-run trend; the Fed's own estimate of sustainable growth is about 1.8%.
- Consumer spending is about two thirds of GDP; investment (housing, equipment, data centers, inventories) is the swing factor.
- Net exports: imports subtract. A tariff-driven import surge made Q1 2025 negative without demand falling.
- PCE prices inside the report preview the inflation gauge the Fed targets. Core PCE at 3.3% in Q2 is far from 2%.
- Revisions: the advance estimate is revised twice; Q2 2026 moved from 1.5% to 2.2%.
Release schedule
| Release | Date |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 advance | October 29, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 second estimate | November 25, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 third estimate | December 23, 2026 |
| Q4 2026 advance | late January 2027 |