Jobs report: October 2026

Last report: September 2026

July revised to -10,000 (from +21,000) and August to +133,000 (from +162,000). Health care +17,000, construction +11,000, financial activities -7,000.

Released October 2, 2026. Source: BLS Employment Situation, September 2026. Inflation is 3.72%, so real wages are falling.

What to watch

• Revisions to August and September: the last report cut 60,000 from the prior two months.
• Unemployment at 4.2% was a rounding call (4.15 rounded up); a move to 4.3% would be a real deterioration.
• Wages: average hourly earnings +3.0% year over year is now below inflation (3.72%), so real wages are falling.
• Health care has been nearly the only sector adding jobs; watch whether anything else turns positive.

How to read it

• Two surveys: payrolls come from employers (establishment survey); the unemployment rate from households. They can disagree in the same month.
• Breakeven: with slower population growth, about 50,000–100,000 jobs a month holds unemployment steady.
• Revisions to the prior two months are often bigger than the headline surprise. Read them first.
• Wages vs prices: average hourly earnings +3.0% against 3.72% inflation means paychecks buy less than a year ago.
• Participation and U-6 (the broad underemployment rate) tell you whether people are leaving the labor force rather than finding work.

Release schedule